Tricky Situation!

Nifty futures are currently trading at almost 30 point discount. That is never a good news. Chartically speaking however there is a slight positive situation emerging if we can hold above 5000. FII's have been net buyers of Futures to the tune of 600 cr on Friday thereby indicating that days of 1000 cr shorting might be behind us.

Hence situation is tricky and going aggressively in any one direction is not advisable, however if Nifty doesnot break 5000 I would much rather go in for long position rather than go short.

Relief Rally!

Relief rally has started with the short positions getting closed on the expiry. I took some adventurous longs at 4854 but covered at 4940 levels, since I was not expecting the Nifty to break the 200 DMA at 5000. The rally seems to continue and if we can trade above 5000, the trend can reverse, however if nifty breaks 5000 then it is a big issue. The trading bias ispositive for a day or two.

Short it still is?

Well I see lot of analyst on the TV coming and saying lot of crap, it pains to see all sorts of opinions being floated, without any basis and the worst part is that these guys donot even concede when they go wrong....Anyhow so now the consensus of the analysts is that Nifty will not go down beyond these levels....Well if someone were to ask me can we go down below these levels, my answer would be "Yes We Can". Heres why we can.

1) Euro zone is in a big mess

2) Germany has reluctantly given a nod to the bail out package, however put a ban on shorting Euro debt

3) There is rumour that Greece might not be a member of Euro anymore, this means that Eurozone is not an integral economy, a member goes bust, they might be ousted.

4) Dollars are being bought as if they are diamonds. This is never a good sign, it basicallymeans money is being pulled out to the safest possible option

And the pertinent question remains, what if Portrugal,Spain & UK is next in line to default? Did you guys know that there are bets that can be had at 2:100 for US defaulting :)

Well anyhow coming back to our dear old nifty....the weakness remains, you might see some covering on Monday and Tuesday and that will lead Nifty slightly higher, however the weakness is there. And in my opinion nifty can go way low from these levels. Hence taking aggressive long positions is definitely a no-no, till the Nifty starts to trade above 200 dma. Hence if markets remain sideways on Monday & Tuesday, then it be a nice time to short!

Nifty 200 dma touched!

Had written in my previous post, how Nifty is looking weak. Well today it touched a critical point, its 200 day moving average. Now one thing that happened today was that Nifty touched 200 dma but closed above it. That is usually expected, as markets bounce from 200 dma's. I went long at that level just for the dead cat bounce, and it came. However I dont think that this might be sustainable if Nifty breaks 200 dma, we are headed for worse times...Ladies and Gentlemen please tighten your seatbelts, roller coaster ahead!

Did Anyone Make Money?

Hi, hope you guys made some money by shorting the Nifty. I had written in my post on 18th April, that its time to be very careful & I would have shorted Nifty had I not gone abroad :)

I dont get to hear too much from you guys, it will be nice to hear from you all.

Coming back to the markets, I am little worried. The kind of selling that is happening reminds me of the correction of 2008. That is never a good sign. This selling is an indication of change of power from Europe to US & ultimately to Asia. Indian markets till now have been quite resilient however once the selling increases it would start to move down faster than US.

I dont have any positions as of now...markets will give some technical up (but it would be a nice opp to short than to go long). I dont have the conviction to go long at all now. I would rather wait for some time & see where & how to buy stocks rather than do futures.

Lets hope for the best!