Niftys back broken

Guys as predicted, Nifty got decimated. Did anyone of you profit from it. More weakness to follow. I hope shorts are in place. Till Nifty breaks 6120 odd, shorts is the way to go. These bouncebacks like today should be used to make intraday money if you are quick enough to trade them. But the main trend needs to be kept in mind. Which is down as of now.

Nifty looks weak

Nifty has slipped into a very weak territory. The second day of weakness broke the back of the markets. And the fourth day, that is on tuesday it was the complete collapse. Now expecting some recovery from tomorrow, however any move up on the nifty will be a good time to short the nifty. Its only if the nifty goes above 6140 then only longs can be considered, else it is a perfect time to short the nifty on any rise.

Also what is interesting is that FII's have sold huge call options at 6100 so that should act as a top for the markets.

The long term outlook of the market remains positive until Nifty breaks 5400. which seems to be a very long distance away.

Samvat 2067

Celebration time for the markets with new highs being reached. Seems we are in for some exciting times ahead for new highs. The only opportunity that looks good right now is to wait for some kind of pullback of 50-100 points on the nifty and enter for long positions. However the issue is that even that might or might not come.

None of the stocks currently are trading cheap. Infact they are trading at highest PE multiples awarded to them, however there seems to be no signs of correction in them. This reminds me of 2007 when the markets were fairly valued at 14000-15000 and then they just ran up to first 18000-19000-20000-21000 eventually. And there were talks of 25000 :) which thankfully never came. Also on the way down markets went below the fair value of 12000 to 7500!!! and just 2 years they are back to more than fairly valued again.

Its impossible to predict the long term movement of the market, guess the only way to make money is buying when the values are cheap ( and mind you that also might be for prolonged periods of time). i remember in 2008-09 tata motors was trading at 200 and below and they came out with a 10% - 12% bond. At that time the stock of tata motors was itself giving a yield of >10% however there were no takers for it. 2 years laters its a 6 bagger at 1200!!!! hence the benefits of value investing....

Well the stocks do look expensive however I have shortlisted some of the stocks that look interesting from this to next Diwali. If the markets hold these large cap stocks would tend to outperform the markets. But a big word of caution the markets must hold :). Reliance, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, ITC. I am not fully convinced about there values since all of them are richly valued however if the markets go up these stocks should tend to lead the rally.

Well so the mantra is invest, wait for the corrections. Utilise the IPOs. and do a systematic investment in good quality stocks only.

Happy Samvat 2067 :)